Need advice/opinions on a muddy duathlon

The event is an off-road duathlon 5km run/16km bike/3km run. I've borrowed my sister's MTB (same height as me) because she has front suspension and disc brakes which mine doesn't, but it has open cage pedals and I have no MTB pedals or shoes. My plan therefore is to ride in the same shoes as I'll run in which should make for good transition times but I'm in a bit of a quandry on foot wear.

Basically we've had huge amounts of rain here over the summer adn it's still coming down now, so I'm expecting it to be pretty soft underfoot/tyre or at least get very cut up during the race. I went out last weekend for a ten-mile MTB on the lanes near me and it was nasty, very poor traction and a lot of feet down time as the back end just kept sliding around.

Expecting the same in two weeks, my choices are
1) Merrell trail gloves
2) New balance minimus zero drop trail shoes
3) an old pair of rubber studded shoes I used to use for early season rugby refereeing, lots of small rubber studs like a fell running shoe
4) hiking boots
5) crampons and ropes

Only kidding about 4 and 5 ;)

I've not run in the rugby shoes for a long time. They are fairly light but not zero drop or minimalist in any kind of way. The thing is that I think in the very soft conditions they will be the best grip option. I can try them out this weekend on the lanes round me to see if they still fit etc but I'd still be interested in other's thoughts on the likely effect of a fairly radical change in shoes this late in the game, but for only a total of 8km running.

Also any advice on race plan? I'm thinking steady first 5k at 10k race pace, blast the bike and hammer the last 3km as quick as my remaining legs will co-operate.
 
oh come on!

somebody must have an opinion
 
Did my first multi-discipline race today, the Evil Sherrif off road duathlon. A great event, well organised and helped by great conditions.

Nice and sunny, around 4-5C at the start building to maybe 8-10 at the end. Course was nice and dry but quite loose underfoot, in Sherwood forrest.

Self timed results (chip timed results not posted yet)
Total 1:34:15 / 27.4km / AHR 156 / MHR 171 / 1230 cals
R1)21:26 /4:23 /4.87km /A157 /M171
T1)1:46
C1)55:09/ 20.7 ave/ 19.1km /A154 / M169
T2)1:28
R2)14:25/ 4:29 /3.2km /A156 / M169

Second run was much slower than planned, but my legs refused to work for the first 1km-1.5km. I'm also wondering if I should have gone harder at the bike, but looking at the difference between R1 and R2 pace probably not.

Whatever, it was a great race, looking forward to seeing where I've finished.

I went with Inov-8 X Talon 190's for the whole thing, run and bike and they were great for the conditions, adn the 3mm drop vs my normal zero drop did not give me any trouble at all.